APPLICATION OF RISK ANALYSIS TOOLS IN MANAGING THE COST OF AN INVESTMENT AND CONSTRUCTION PROJECT

Abstract

In the era of dynamically developing information technologies, the number of high-cost investment projects is constantly increasing, in view of this, the obvious need to proactively identify risk factors that cause possible losses or benefits from the implementation of projects. In the case of identifying certain risks of an investment project, it is necessary to develop various scenarios for the development of risk events based on the cause-and-effect relationships between events and their consequences with an assessment of the probability of consequences. The article studies the possibilities of increasing the accuracy of estimating the cost of an investment and construction project based on various analysis and evaluation tools. Accurate estimates can be achieved using the project cost estimation modeling mechanism at all stages of the project life cycle. The stages of investment and construction project cost estimation are considered, which include cost calculation, i.e. determination of costs for individual works depending on the calculation of the volume of work and pricing - determination of the full cost of the project taking into account the cost, profit and reserves for unforeseen circumstances. The paper provides a comparative analysis of project cost estimation methods: methods of aggregated estimation, analog and parametric estimation methods, detailed estimation of project costs, the application of which should be carried out iteratively. It is noted that risk management tools should be considered in combination with project cost estimation due to the dependence of the goal in identifying and assessing risks with maximum productivity and the lowest cost. The article examines various approaches to estimation, in particular: project cost estimation at the pre-investment stage in the form of a rough (approximate) value of the cost; project cost estimation at the business planning stage in the form of an estimated value of the cost justification; project cost estimation in the process of calculating costs by type of work – budget cost estimation; estimation of the final planned cost of the project, which is included in the project budget, – accurate cost estimation of the project.