GAME THEORY AS A TOOL FOR MODELING HUMAN CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT IN A COMPETITIVE LABOR MARKET
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32782/city-development.2026.1-10Keywords:
game theory, human capital, economic uncertainty, career choice, Wald criterion, Savage criterion, Hurwicz criterion, rationality trapAbstract
The article investigates the application of statistical game theory to model decision-making regarding human capital investments (career choice) under economic uncertainty. The authors formalize the choice of an educational trajectory as a "game with nature," where strategies include IT, economics, and vocational professions, while states of nature encompass technological boom, stagnation, and deep crisis scenarios. Using Wald, Savage, and Hurwicz criteria, the impact of subjective risk appetite on the optimal choice is analyzed. It is proven that the optimal strategy depends on the individual's psychological attitude: extreme pessimism leads to choosing a stable vocational profession, whereas the desire to avoid regret over missed opportunities leads to a high-risk IT specialty. The study identifies a "rationality trap," where individually rational choices of "safe" professions may cause a macroeconomic deficit of innovative personnel. The practical application of the model in career guidance and government policy for social risk insurance is substantiated to stimulate choices optimal for long-term economic development.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Віталія Койбічук, Дмитро Пархоменко, Ірина Сотник, Євген Коваленко
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