MILTECH INDUSTRY AS A STABILIZING FACTOR FOR UKRAINE IN THE PRE-SINGULAR PERIOD

Abstract

The article examines the economic and organizational role of Ukraine in shaping the new architecture of specialization and cooperation in the global military technology (MilTech) industry under conditions of integrated singularity – a predicted period of 2040-2045 when technological, demographic, migratory, and economic singularities converge, creating a resonant effect of radical and difficult-to-predict changes in the global system. Based on the analysis of forecasts by Zbigniew Brzezinski, Anders Åslund, Nouriel Roubini, and other researchers, the hypothesis of the world's transition to a phase of sequential local armed conflicts and regional turbulence is substantiated. Special attention is paid to the concept of the «singularity warfare» developed by R. Bari Urcosta, which proves that the intersection of technological, demographic, and political singularities leads to nonlinear consequences where traditional security models lose effectiveness. The study proves that Ukraine cannot compete in the development and production of cutting-edge semiconductor technologies (3-5 nm) due to prohibitive capital costs and lack of technological experience. However, it has unique prospects in the production of mature-node chips (90-180 nm) – a technological range sufficient for the vast majority of military electronics, including drones, electronic warfare systems, communication devices, and fire control systems. It is demonstrated that given Ukraine's transformation into a center for the development of new military technologies for partner and allied armies, a strategic opportunity emerges to create a full-cycle defense production: from component base to final products, ensuring technological sovereignty for both Ukraine and its partners. The study calculates the required volume of arms and military services exports to balance Ukraine's defense expenditures at the 2025 level, estimated at $18-22 billion annually, which would cover 30-40% of the Armed Forces of Ukraine funding needs. The investment parameters for establishing domestic semiconductor production are analyzed, with an estimated cost of $2-3 billion and a payback period of 7-10 years. The economic feasibility of total robotization is substantiated: replacing up to 80% of combat functions with robotic systems costing $10,000-50,000 per unit versus the annual cost of maintaining a soldier at $35,000-45,000. Investments of $5 billion in robotization (30,000 ground robotic systems, 7 million drones annually, naval drones, medical logistics systems) pay back in less than 8 months by replacing 200,000 military personnel with an annual maintenance cost of $8 billion. An economic model for stabilizing Ukraine through defense specialization in the pre-singularity period is proposed. The study was conducted using search platforms and artificial intelligence language platforms, but the topic, direction, methodology, and conclusions are exclusively the author's.